Portable Devices and 3D

We’ve recently seen some news about 3D in the mobile industry (Next Tegra 2 CPU (known as Tegra 2 3D) and 3D phones at MWC2011). It has gotten a great marketing response but a pretty mediocre to lack-luster response from consumers. On this one, I have to agree with the marketers in one way – I think this is great! On the other hand, I also have to agree with the consumers on the other hand, nobody really cares now nor will they much when it’s first released. So what’s the deal here?

Before I explain my thoughts, let me throw one more variable into the equation. You have heard of Kinect for the Xbox 360 from Microsoft, right? If not, go read here. As a very quick technical summary, the main components of Kinect that we care about here include a/some video camera(s) and depth perception. Do you see where I’m going with this?

Let me give you one more hint if you still don’t get what I’m talking about here. Have you ever seen Minority Report? If not, you MUST watch this video. At this point, I should no longer need to explain anything. Between having a 3D display that doesn’t require glasses and Kinect technology, we now have all physical technology required for this type of UI! But actually, ours is cooler because the Minority Report UI isn’t really in 3D and ours is! So we can actually interact with the depthness of UI components by “touching” them, something that the Minority Report UI couldn’t do. They essentially just had overglorified 2D pinch-to-zoom.

So what we see in 2011 will be some pretty crappy implementations of 3D in mobile devices. There will be 3D movies that play on them and some terrible apps/games that use the 3D display. However, this is a necessary evil to get us to where we are going. Once 3D becomes standard and Kinect-type controllers become more standard, we can then begin creating UIs from the ground-up that builds upon these features in a way that can become awesome devices for all. So as the marketers say, this is great/amazing/spectacular. But also, as the consumers say, nobody will initially care much. However, it really will end up with some really neat end results! So if you’re somebody with some money and creativity, I STRONGLY encourage you to create some 3D UIs and get some patents in this area. Today’s science allows all of this to happen, 2010 has already started and 2011 will continue shipping products with these technologies in them, and you’ll see that 2012, people will begin doing this for real instead of just as a gimmick to create sales. So what you begin today will begin to come into strong demand in about 1.5 years from now! At that point, Apple, Microsoft, Google, or somebody will want to buy your company out.

What do you think about having 3D displays on tablets and smartphones? Share below if this is something you’re looking forward to or not (because I guarantee, we will get there!).

Integrated Portable Devices – The future of Smartphones and Tablets

Quote me now, this is where I think the industry will go in a number of years (I guess ~2 years from now but may be wrong on that). We’re already starting to see shifts in this direction with a great response to it.

The Atrix sounds cool where the phone docks into a laptop shell, right?

What about the Asus Eee Pad Transformer where you dock the tablet into a keyboard to create a laptop?

But wait, there’s more! We can, and will, do better!

We will see a market where you choose your phone and everything builds upon that device. We will have a variety of tablets that we can dock our phones into. We will have a variety of keyboards that we can dock our tablets into. And perhaps we will keep the Atrix idea of directly docking a phone into a keyboard/screen combo. Ultimately, all of these devices will be powered by our phones and we will get to choose the platform independent of the accessories independent of the carrier. For a very large percentage of us (not all, mind you), this device with these accessories would provide us with 100% of our personal portable computing needs, and would even apply to a significant number of us in the workplace as well. For the rest of this article, I will refer to these devices as a Phone, a Tablet Shell, and a Keyboard Dock.

A few points I want to make sure to hit on:

  1. Industry-standard compatability
  2. Cheaper upgrades, fewer wasted natural resources with more flexible accessories
  3. Single data package for all of these different “devices”

1. Industry-standard compatability
This will require some standards. Let’s call this the IPD (Integrated Portable Device) Standard and clearly we would need all parties to agree on and support these standards. A small governing body would be created (perhaps with representatives from major interested companies would be on the panel) to govern the standard.

Initially, I would suggest IPDv1 would support some pretty basic I/O with Display (out from the phone and into the tablet), sound out/in from all interconnects (speakers and microphones on Tablet Shell and/or Keyboard Dock), and user-interaction in through all interconnects (touchscreen on the Tablet Shell, keyboard/touchpad on the Keyboard Dock, perhaps other buttons too). Via this standard display-out, we could also go to a TV, similar to how we use HDMI-out on phones now (but I suggest we consider a different standard, such as DisplayPort which can still support DHCP). I would also propose some Data I/O standards so that our Tablet Shell and/or our Keyboard Dock can have additional functionality (such as a memory card reader and definitely backup capabilities, controlled by the phone OS/software, of course). Lastly, there should be standard power connections so a Tablet Shell and a Keyboard Dock can provide additional battery support, and charging, to the other devices. All of these standards would be independent of Carrier and OS so that accessories that were purchased with a 3G CDMA Android phone with Verizon would work when upgrading to a 4G Wimax WP7 phone on Sprint. We’ll see if Apple would allow their devices to meet these standards – I would hope so but doubt it.

Additionally, we would need physical standards to dock different phones into the same Tablet Shell. This would make it such that a phone with a 3.2″ screen and a phone with a 4.4″ screen can both dock into the same Tablet shell. This might require “phone cartridges” to help with this, but hopefully something better can be thought of to keep a phone securely docked into a tablet yet conveniently removed. Also, port placement would be standardized.

Lastly, these standards will need to grow over time (for example, when we need to support 3D displays, the display interconnect standard might change), so there needs to be a clear versioning of these standards to prevent confusion of what is and is not supported. So if IPDv1 was what I proposed, then perhaps IPDv2 would add 3D support, ethernet support, and support up to 5″ phone screens (or rather, a phone with an increased maximum set of dimensions). Ideally, these standards would not change on a frequent basis, and there should be a very forgiving level of backwards-compatability (for example, an IPDv2 phone that supports 3D technology should still work, albeit in 2D, with a IPDv1 Tablet Shell). These standards should be tightly controlled/patrolled to prevent devices/accessories being released that aren’t fully-compatible with what they claim to be.

2. Cheaper upgrades, fewer wasted natural resources with more flexible accessories
Since at upgrade time you can continue using your previous accessories with newer phones, this will result in a cheaper upgrade for the user as well as fewer wasted natural resources. This is a win for all of us. For those of us who care about the environment, a win. For those of us who want to save money as a consumer, a win. Those of us who want both a 10″ and a 7″ tablet for different times, a win.

But what about manufacturers who make a lot of money on accessories? Well, let’s look at that since this will fail without their support and adoption. We have 3 primary groups of people who make money off of accessories: Phone Manufacturers (Motorola, etc.), Third-party Manufacturers (Seido, etc.), and Carriers/Resellers (who tend to rebadge and/or resell products from the first two groups). For parties in the first two groups here, I claim this is a win because this will have little negative impact on the current market of gel cases, perfect-fitting car docks, screen protectors, etc. where they currently make money (those accessories would not be IPD-compliant and still have their own market). It would affect them in two ways: (1) this would create some new product areas that these manufacturers can create, specifically Keyboard Docks, and (2) this should increase sales in the tablet/laptop accessories area since it lowers the barrier of entry for new users to obtain tablets (which would still need gel cases and screen protectors). For Tablet Shells, this would now open up this accessories markets a bit and let screen manufacturers create and sell what they specialize in, profit in, and can do best – create screens with interfaces to display stuff on them without hurting manufacturers of the other legacy-type accessories. For the third group, the carriers/resellers, well, this just gives them more product to sell and profit on.

3. Single data package for all of these different “devices”
For the user, this could save them some money by not requiring 3 different data packages to keep a phone/tablet/laptop online while traveling. Since everything happens through the phone, only the phone would need a data package. Even if not saving money, it would at least be easier and less confusing for the user. So for the user, this is a win. What about the carrier? Well, this is a tough one but I still think this is a win since expectations are that carriers are moving more and more towards tiered data plans. AT&T has already done this and Verizon has given all indications that it will be as well. This tiered data plan would fit perfectly with Integrated Portable Devices. And this still doesn’t prevent carriers from offering a Premier Unlimited Data package. In fact, I think it would be wise for them to do so and just to consider what this might mean for them (i.e. the exact reason why we’re all expecting them to move to tiered plans).

Please comment below and let us all know what you think!

I thought I would update this and list a few interesting articles that talk about progress on IPDs:

Now don’t get me wrong. These aren’t the most polished products, or even something that can necessarily be called “good”, but this is an interesting evolution to watch as it all evolves right before our eyes!

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